The Blog

Last week in VentureBeat we noted that the "Smart Money Has Always Been on Obama." See the story here.

The story ran the day of the release of hidden camera footage showing Romney at a private fundraiser in May. What's happened since then? Probabilities of an Obama victory have gone even higher -- yielding an average of 75.3% at the three exchanges.

Here is the forecast at Media Predict's real-money market since the DNC (final probability 73.3%):

Here is the Iowa Electronic Markets (May-Present). Probability is 80%.

And here is Intrade. Probability is 72.6%.

Stay tuned for more updates!

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You love it when you receive those new topic updates from Media Predict. But before if you got it on your phone, it was tough to trade right then and there.

Well, no longer.

Media Predict's new mobile site is live! (And yes, a mobile app is on the way...) Simply point your iOS or Android browser to our website and you're ready to trade right there on your phone.

Let us know what you think! And thanks for being a part of MP.

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OK folks, this one is simple. You do us a favor, we give you media bucks.

You all know the corkboards out there. Nannies with references. Apartments. French lessons. Used boats. And that "Dan" guy who will teach you guitar.

For our first viral campaign, Media Predict is going to target the corkboards of the world.

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Today Media Predict has launched a new site where regular people can get paid to place bets on what will go big -- or bust -- in media. There's a good reason why. As the famous quotation goes: nobody knows anything.

"Nobody knows anything," William Goldman originally wrote in Adventures in the Screen Trade. "Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what's going to work. Every time out it's a guess."

It's true to this day. Despite our modern technology -- despite the wonders of Apple, Google, and Facebook combined -- statistically speaking most new media content flops. It's true of movies, video games, books, music, everything.

Goldman's occasion for making his remark was actually "Raiders of the Lost Ark," which, he points out, every studio turned down. "Why did Paramount say yes?" writes Goldman. "Because nobody knows anything. And why did all the other studios say no? Because nobody knows anything . . . [N]obody, nobody -- not now, not ever -- knows the least goddamn thing about what is or isn't going to work at the box office."

Clearly Goldman had a point. After all, the history of media has been filled with spectacularly bad decisions, as future successes go neglected:

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