Frequently Asked Questions
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Help -- I forgot my password.
If you ever forget your password, look for a “forgot my password” link at the Real Money home page at http://realmoney.mediapredict.com.
Real Money Questions
What’s the difference between Bet View and Trader View?
Bet View is a simplified view. Just like in any other betting situation, we offer odds. As you place your bet in the yellow trading interface, we’ll tell you how much you stand to win or lose. For participants who want more control, we offer Trader View. This view shows you the underlying mechanics of the market. Just like a Wall St. trader, you can buy low and sell high. Use whatever view suits you best.
How can I get invited into the Real-Money site?
The easiest way to get invited into Media Predict Real Money is simply to be an active user who makes good predictions.
That said, some categories will weigh more in our invitations decisions -- users who perform well in television and film topics are much more likely to be invited than, say, users who participate in topics relating to reality show eliminations.
From time to time we may invite users based on demographic considerations -- e.g. users of a certain gener or in a certain geographic region.
Do people bet their own money at Media Predict Real Money?
No -- never. Media Predict supplies all finds to be used at Media Predict Real Money. These funds are non-transferrable and have no value outside of the Media Predict system. No external party is allowed to put funds into Media Predict Real Money at any time.
How much money will I receive if I get invited?
Invitations are issued with different dollar amounts, which may depend upon your prior performance at the Media Predict game site. Or your invitation may be based on external factors -- depending on recruiting needs, Media Predict may issue larger or smaller initial amounts.
What kinds of topics are there at Media Predict Real Money?
We are unable to comment specifically on current questions at Media Predict Real Money. However we can say that participants often have access to inside material not yet available to the general public -- users could potentially bet, say, on a television pilot that has yet to be green-lit, or a movie idea that has yet to be produced. Beyond that Real Money users can bet on upcoming films and shows, just as they do at Media Predict.
Is Media Predict Real Money a gambling site?
No -- a common definition of gambling is staking something of your own value in a game of chance. At Media Predict Real Money we pay all participants. No one stakes anything of their own value, and all participants walk away better off than they were before.
Bet View Questions
How do I make a bet?
Once you register, you’re ready to make a bet. Simply go to any topic page that interests you. For a full listing of Topics, click “Topics” in the top navigation. All of the betting will take place in the yellow interface that you will see displayed prominently on a topic page. Look at the interface for more detailed directions on how to execute your bet.
How are the odds determined? Who sets the odds?
The odds at Media Predict are almost always determined by the community. So if everything is betting that something is going to happen, then the odds will be high. Media Predict does set opening odds for all of its topics, but these are quickly moved upward or downward by betting activity. Overwhelmingly the odds are determined by other peoples’ actions in the marketplace, not the starting price.
What are the rules for betting?
Rules for betting are explained in the yellow interface that you’ll see on every topic page. In general they’re pretty simple. Use the slider to specify the amount of bet you’d like to make, the boxes below stand to tell you what you will win or lose.
How do yes-no topics work?
In yes/no questions (e.g. will this television show be renewed?), if you’re right you’ll win. The amount is based on the odds at the time of betting.
How do numeric topics work?
In numeric questions, all you need to do is bet whether the real outcome -- e.g. box office revenue or television ratings -- will be higher or than the current odds suggest. Here, if you beat the odds by a little, you win a little. If you beat the odds by a lot, you win a lot. Suppose that you bet that a movie would earn more than $10 million in its opening weekend. If the movie goes out and makes $15 million, you win a little. If it makes $90 million, you win a lot. Specific numbers will be determined by the odds at the time of betting.
Can I bet more than once?
Yes, the system will take as many bets as you like. Just go to the topic in question and use the slider. The yellow box will tell you when you’re reversing and earlier bet.
You can even change your mind -- so if you bet in favor of something, you can turn around and bet against it a few days later if you like.
When I bet more than once do I lose money?
Be aware when you reverse a bet in this manner, there may be a penalty. Let’s say you bet that something would happen -- but now the odds have turned in a new direction, and something that once looked probable now looks improbable. You can still bet in the other direction, but to make up for your earlier bad bet, the system will automatically calculate a buy-out amount that you’ll have to pay before you can do so.
What’s the difference between Bet View and Trader View?
Think about if you were to place a bet in Vegas -- say, on a sports event. You put your money down, and then you wait to see what happens. So betting is usually a one-time action. However, trading is a day-to-day action, where people try to buy shares at a low price, and sell them at a high price. In this case you have a portfolio of investments, which goes up and down on a daily basis.
When I switch between Bet View and Trader View my "total value" does not equal my "net worth." Why?
In Bet View, we show you the value of the money you’ve already bet. So if you put down $400 on a bet last Tuesday, we’d show that amount in “tied up in bets.” However, in Trader View, we show you if that money has gone up or down in value since your initial. So instead of showing you what you actually put down ($400 in our example), we show you what your investment is now worth (which could be higher or lower than $400).
Trader View Questions
What is Trader View?
Trader View is for our most advanced users. It shows you the underlying mechanics that really make Media Predict work. In Trader View you buy shares that may go up or down in value depending on the real future outcome. A special tutorial video for Trade View will show you plenty of information as to how Trade View works. Look for it soon!
How is Trader View different than Bet View?
There is no essential difference between Bet View and Trader View. In the end people predict what will happen, and they make or lose Media Predict dollars as a result. Trader view just gives you more information as to the underlying mechanics. This information is especially helpful for users who want to “day trade” -- i.e. trade frequently to realize upward and downward gains in the marketplace. If you’re one of those users, Trade View is for you.
How do I make a trade?
If you’ve already used Bet View, making trades will be a familiar process. Simply go to any topic page and look for the yellow interface. Once you upgrade to Trade View, you’ll notice that the interface works in much the same way that it did in Bet View -- it just displays more information. For example, it will show the numbers of shares you’re buying, and what the new share price will be after your trade.
How can I take profits or cut losses?
Once you upgrade to Trader View, your My Stuff page will become much more dynamic. For example, it will show you how much you’ve gained or lost with your current investments in the marketplace. If you want to take gains or cut losses without waiting for the final judgment, you can do so via the commands available in My Stuff.
When I made a trade, who am I trading WITH?
Media Predict acts as “the house” on all trades, which enables you to buy or sell shares at any time (regardless of whether there are buyers or sellers waiting to complete the exchange). This feature enables us to have a 24-7, always-active marketplace that’s always waiting for you when you want to make a trade.
I notice that the bigger my trade, the more I pay for shares. Why is that?
Media Predict works like a real financial market -- as more and more people buy shares, prices go up. Something like that is happening here. In order to set appropriate prices in the marketplace, Media Predict cannot allow participants to buy an infinite amount of shares at one moment. Rather, if you buy more shares, you’ll need to pay a little bit more for each new share, so that we can adjust the price properly in the marketplace.
What you have is nice, but I want more trading information!
A new and revised trading interface is coming soon. This will give you more information as to the nature of your trade, the number of shares bought or sold, trading volume, the impact on the price, and much more.
Using the Site
What kinds of topics will there be at Media Predict?
Media Predict focuses mainly on television and film, although we may offer topics relating to video games, advertising, new media, and more.
How can I see past predictions I have made?
Your “My Stuff” listing will show you predictions you have made. Look to the top for the "My History" link to see past topics on which you have placed bets. You will also notice that the “Topics” page will also mark topics on which you have already made a prediction.
Is this a prediction market? What is that?
Yes, for those familiar with the term, Media Predict is a “prediction market,” which is a lot like a futures market. The idea is that you can buy shares in future events. The trends in the betting are highly accurate indicators of future events. For more, see James Suroweicki’s excellent book “The Wisdom of Crowds.”
What’s The Feed?
The Feed is the best way to keep up to date on everything that’s happening at Media Predict. It’s generally broken into two parts -- “General Feed” and “My Feed.”
What's the General Feed?
The General Feed is an ongoing newsfeed of everything that happens at the Media Predict site. We figured more information makes for a better market and a better experience, so we’re giving it to you.
What's My Feed?
My Feed is a new feature that is still under development. But the idea is simple. As you use the site you can designate specific users or topics you would like to follow in your feed -- do this by clicking the yellow “Feed Follow” button. Once you do so, updates from that person or topic will appear in your My Feed. (Yes, it’s a bit like Twitter.)
What are Badges? How do they work?
Badges are just for fun. The idea is to reward you for your activity. As you make more predictions or comments, you’ll be rewarded. Visit the Badges page (see top navigation) to see what badges you’ve won, what badges you’re working on, and what badges other people have won on the site.
Why can’t I see more on my profile page?
The profile page is under development. Please bear with us.
How can I set my e-mail notification settings?
You can access your user settings via your profile page. To find your profile page, click on your username, which appears in the upper right of every page on the site. A link to email notification settings will appear there in the left sidebar.
Or just go to http://mediapredict.com/profile/edit