IT'S AN ANNUAL tradition at Media Predict to kick off the Oscar betting when the first true contender comes on the radar. A couple years ago this honor went to Hilary Swank's "Amelia" -- and this, it turns out, is the only reason we even remember this film. But this year we're confident we have a real contender on our hands in "Dark Knight Rises." After all, it made money, reviews are positive, and being the concluding installment of a popular trilogy never hurts (see "King, Return of"). Also, many might argue that the whole reason we now have more nominations for best picture was that "Dark Knight" got snubbed back in 2008. All this said, it's not a slam dunk. Positive reviews at Rotten Tomatoes clocked in at 86%, which is very strong, but that's not quite the 94% love-fest we saw for its predecessor. Also, it's a long way until the Oscars, and memories may fade. Either way, we're putting it on our list of likely nominees, not just because the film worked, but also because Nolan brought his well-executed trilogy to a satisfying close -- without the crash-and-burn tendencies of the Spider-Man trilogy, the X-Men trilogy or, oh, the original Batman franchise, which ended up with George Clooney in a suit with nipples. It's a long way until red-carpet time, but fortunes will rise for "Dark Knight." 7/25/20