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Will Beck Debut in the Billboard Top Five?
100.0% probability

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THE MARKET: Will Beck’s upcoming album, “Modern Guilt,” debut in the top 5 of the Billboard 200 ? If it does, shares are worth $100. If it doesn’t, shares are worth $0. The album will be released on July 8. Trading closes at 11:59 p.m. July 13. The market will be cleared when Billboard releases new charts on July 17.
THE DATA: Beck’s decision to have Danger Mouse produce “Modern Guilt” seems wise, considering DM’s record with Gnarls Barkley, and other big names. Beck’s most recent album, “The Information,” hit No. 7, and 2005’s “Guero” made it to No. 2. The first single from “Modern Guilt,” “Chemtrails,” has almost 60,000 plays on MySpace and buzz about the album is positive so far.
OUR TAKE: Beck purists may grumble about his move away from white-boy faux hip-hop to a more sixties-British sound, but it seems to be a change that’s working. His chart history has been a little erratic, but the overall trend is upwards, and if “Chemtrails” catches on the album might reach the top spot. Danger Mouse’s past productions like “The Grey Album” have been successful, and Gnarls Barkley’s “Crazy” is still stuck in everyone’s head, even two years later. If he can do here what he did for Cee-Lo, Beck could be big. —Leigh Kunkel

LEARN MORE:
Visit Beck’s official site.
See Beck’s Billboard chart history page.

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