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EVERYONE’S ASKING: is this the year that “Heroes” is toast? Streaking to popularity in 2006 – with “LOST” in its prime and serial dramas all the rage – the comic-book saga looked set to revive the hopes of a struggling NBC. Jump to 2010, and the network is still struggling. As for its one-time flagship show, viewership for its February midseason finale dwindled to a miserable 4 million. What happened? Well, where “LOST” is often criticized as being a tease, never really giving enough to satisfy the viewer, “Heroes” perhaps cashed in too many dramatic chips in its (admittedly excellent) first season. People died, we thought. A story ran its course, we thought. And it was all pretty cool. But after that the only option was to recycle. And recycle NBC did, killing characters and reviving them, taking away powers, transferring powers, transferring them back – all of which turned the show into a confusing mess without a powerful central storyline. Also, it’s expensive to produce special effects and to keep around stars like Ali Larter, Hayden Panettiere, and Zachary Quinto. So we think it’s toast. However both the network and the creators will bend over backwards to ensure that the series receives a proper ending, if only to preserve DVD sales. That could make for a short six-episode run next year, which is a risk for the short sellers. Barring that, the once-great “Heroes” will fall at last. 2/18/10.
THE MARKET: Will “Heroes” be renewed by NBC? If the network approves another season, shares are worth $100. If it doesn’t, they’re worth $0. See TV confirmation guidelines.
RESEARCH: Google News :: Numbers at Wikipedia:: Episodes and Home Page
| POSSIBLE ANSWERS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| $86.39/ $0.00 | (closed) |
As for selective suspensions, I don’t think MediaPredict has the manpower to be monitoring even the major entertainment news outlets 24/7. Until they have more people and can have around the clock staffing there are going to be windows for last second gaming of the markets.
For similar reasons people on the East Coast have an advantage over those to the west for things like the “Will X reach Y episodes” or recently the “Will So-And-So Survive Lost”. Two of those Lost markets dropped like rocks as the eastern seaboard viewers sold shares based on watching an episode several hours before it even started to air on the West Coast.
Our policy is that we pull the plug as soon as we see a definitive report — and the report we saw on “Heroes” was pretty definitive. On this same basis we closed trading for “V” this morning.
But the “Chuck” market remains open because recent low numbers have kept the negotiations going longer than anticipated — it’s likely, but not a done deal. As for “Romantically” we’re also hearing that’s still ongoing, but we’ll dig deeper right now.
As a rule of thumb, you have to get your trades in before the market is closed, whenever that happens. Sometimes we’re quick, sometimes (alas) we’re not. To spoils go to the speedy in this case!