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Will Yahoo Accept Microsoft’s Buyout Offer?
0.0% probability

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THE MARKET: Will Yahoo accept Microsoft’s buyout offer of $44.6 billion dollars? If Yahoo does, shares are worth $100. If it doesn’t, they’re worth $0. (NOTE: this market does not seek to determine whether the deal would go through or meet regulatory approval; it seeks to measure whether Yahoo will publicly accept the offer.)

THE LOWDOWN: The news on Friday, February 1, made global headlines: to take on search engine giant Google, Microsoft has made an enormous offer for flagging search engine competitor Yahoo. Will Yahoo publicly accept the offer? Make the call. (Media Predict will judge whether the offer is publicly accepted from national press reports and official Yahoo press releases.)

THE PR: From (yes) Yahoo News: “Microsoft Corp. has pounced on slumping Internet icon Yahoo Inc. with an unsolicited takeover offer of $44.6 billion in its boldest bid yet to challenge Google Inc.’s dominance of the lucrative online search and advertising markets. The surprise offer of $31 per share, made late Thursday and announced Friday, seizes on Yahoo’s weakness while Microsoft tries to muscle up in a high-stakes battle with Google likely to define the technology landscape for years to come. In a statement Friday, Yahoo said it will ‘carefully and promptly’ study Microsoft’s bid.”

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Current value = probability prediction will occur, e.g. $10 = 10% chance prediction will occur.

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Discussion

last comment by: rgillett, Feb 07 2008 @ 03:02 PST    DISCLOSURE - This user is participating in this market.
If Microsoft sweetens the deal then this is worth $0, correct?